Experts and their Advice

We all have to rely on expert advice to some degree. However, all advice, even from the most eminent expert, needs to be taken as advice, and not as gospel truth.

Experts tend to be narrow specialists in their knowledge and outlook. They think that their expertise is the best solution becasue they have spent so long studying their field of expertise that they have not enough time to study other fields, and so their knowledge is limitec to their speciality.

Thus, if you are ill and go to a physician the physician will tend to advise what he or she knows – usually medication. If you then go to a surgeon, the surgeon will then advise what he or she knows – an operation. A physiotherapist will advise physiotherapy for the same condition. No single specialist has a monopoly on knowledge so it can be dangerous to rely on advice tendered by a specialist rather than by a generalist.

The present corona pandemic is a case in point. the government rightly sought to be led by experts in medicine and pandemics. In particular they seemed to have attached much weight to the calculations of Professor Ferguson as justification for the present lockdown.

Now it seems to me that present Ferguson did not really believe in his calculations. If he did believe in them he would not have met a friend on two occasions in breach of the lockdown regulations because to do so, by his own arithmetic, would have caused the virus to spread. In these circumstances I do not see why the government should rely on professor Ferguson’s expert advice any more, if the learned professor does not believe in his own advice sufficiently to adhere to it.

All expert advice and recommendations should be carefully scrutinised; like the parson’s egg it will be good in parts. It seems to me that some experts lack good old fashioned common sense and common sense, not expertise, is the pre-requisite for sound judgment which in turn should be the basis of all decision making.

2 Responses

  1. I don’t wish to appear as an ‘egg sucking’ teacher but In Court hearings experts give opinion evidence not factual evidence. Where the Court allows, each party is permitted to to present its own expert’s opninion. Normally, by the time judgment is being considered only points of disagreement remain for the Judge to pronounce on. Nevertheless ‘both’ parties have had their say. That is not the situation with the present Cabinet. Ferguson led the Cabinet decisions because the contrary voices were (in my view) deliberately not presented to Cabinet.

    Experts in hearings have a duty to the Court or tribunal. They must also be impartial, independent and free from a conflict of interest. The experts on SAGE are well known to have conflicts of interest tainting their opinions.

    Their conflicts range from previous research funding for academics to cosy ‘revolving door’ positions in drug and healthcare companies and charities. Sir Patrick Vallance was previously president of GSK research. Ferguson via Imperial College had funding from the Gates Foundation. Whitty was on the Board of CEPI. If you read the artice by Vanessa Beeley in Off-guardian you will be surprised to see that no one in SAGE is a genuine impartial, independent expert. Even Matt Hancock has ties to companies likely to benefit from the unfolding disaster. (Perhaps Boris is free from these conflicts but he has been led by the so called, ‘science’ )

    So what is happening? Are we being lined up for worldwide annual vaccination courtesy of Bill Gates’ and Big Pharma. Far fetched? This virus is no deadlier than influenza but have we have been deliberately put in fear of our lives so we will accept the vaccination programme and its associated identity/movement tracking. Drug companies are not content with medicating everyone for depression, hypertension, cholesterol, di da di da. Unfortunately for drug companies, cures provide small revenue streams as there is little chance to recover the investment in research and trials. Treatments and vaccines are the prreferred and best type of revenue stream for drug companies.

    Why is Bill Gates the new guru on this virus? He is not elected, he has no medical training, he is not an expert? In my view, simply because he understands the fortune to be made and is promoting vaccines rather than treatments. It must be remembered that he made his money by licensing a product which was cheap to make but everyone needed, i.e. MS-Dos and Windows. he received something like $200 dollars for every computer in the world sold with Microsoft’s operating system

    He has realised this same model will work with a vaccination programme. Drug companies love it. Advertisers and despotic politicians love the idea of vaccination certificates and contact tracking. So we all have to be put in fear so that these organisations can profit from us and control our lives.

    Of course Ferguson never believed his predictions. The lame excuse of belief in his immunity was a transparent lie so that he could resign from SAGE without releasing the computer code for his modelling. Also, like with all other mombers of SAGE, the Government enacted legal immunity so he cannot be sued for his incompetence, negligence, or perhaps intentional bad advice. He, like other SAGE members, knew their personal position and future income depended on frightening Boris et al into the economic disaster called lockdown, where the only route to normality is by perpetual annual vaccinations. Bill Gates and Astra Zeneca shareholders are rubbing their hands in anticipation.

    The only remaining question is whether the release of CV was accidental or deliberate. John Hopkins University hosted a tabletop review and exercise called Event 201 in October 2019. The funders were the Gates Foundation and Center for Health Security, The topic “The worldwide response to severe pandemics”

  2. something seasonal :-

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