Proof of Nothing But Evidence of Something

People tend to believe what they want to believe, rather than what the evidence suggests they ought to believe and this is particularly true of those that believe that the planet is not warming up but rather cooling down. Since Christmas Eve 52 passengers have been trapped in a research vessel in Antarctica, the Akademik Shokalskiy. Some journalists used the fact that the vessel was trapped by ice in the Antarctic Summer as proof that the planet was cooling. In fact it is not proof of anything but evidence that the planet is getting warmer.

The ice that trapped the boat was ice that had broken off the Antarctic ice mass, and ice breaks off an ice mass when the weather conditions are warmer than usual. Winds drove the broken ice to form around the  Akademik Shokalskiy, thus trapping it. If conditions were colder the ice would not have broken off the ice mass.

Nevertheless some journalists with more prejudice than honesty, claimed that this was proof that the Antarctic was warming. meanwhile, out of journalist integrity, they made no mention that 2013 was the warmest recorded year for Australia,  with temperatures  1.2 degrees Celasius above the long term average, the warmest since records began in 1910. This in itself is proof of nothing about climate change but evidence of something.

7 Responses

  1. By the time proof of who is right and who is wrong is available, it will probably be too late to (A) live on our planet, or (B) buy anything as all the wealth will be in the pockets of the few. Doomed if we do, and broke if we don’t.

    This cartoon could be relevant . . . .

    http://cartoonmick.wordpress.com/editorial-political/#jp-carousel-205

    Cheers

    Mick

  2. More guesser grams and non science reaching non scientists.

    Does anyone actually know the difference between the North and South pole ice sheets, then let me say this.

    The North pole area is on a sea level model, the South pole area is on land and is about 11,000 feet above sea level, so the North pole is more sensitive than the South when it comes to noticeable changes.

    The information about the ice shelf migration does not say that the open water from where it broke away and where it is now is also covered with ice, what does this tell the layman, its not rocket science.

    Then we come to the venerable question and fact that no MSM outlet want to hear let alone mention, There is a well known and physical phenomenon called Global Precession, A natural phenomenon that is currently tilting the Earths axis/North Pole 40 miles towards Russia every year and increasing quicker than has ever been witnessed, the Inuit elders have already seen this with the naked eye.

    And the second, Do Not Go There Issue by the trustful media is, the Greenland and Norse Model, where the Vikings were happily Cathedral farming with good sized dairy herds, so the question begs for an answer as to how much warmer it needs to be, before they return to this kind of farming again, 2-3 degrees perhaps, with an open North West Passage once again, used by the same people to get to Canada and the sea born Inuit’s in Kayak to visit the Norse settlements on Greenland

    Also what caused the giant Ice Bergs to create the Titanic’s fated journey, carrying Bergs much further south than normal in 1912, the same year when the bay and in ships trapped in question was without ice, Mawson knew of this and was prepared for a year before resupply came again in the spring..

    You know one day we might find the right knowledge and see this AGW theory at best for what it is, pure speculation using non science as a way to see the lies on offer.

    Come on folks do some historical research and know your worthiness to what is The Big Lie, using vested science, which is costing us more in pollution, trying to raise the extra cash to save the natural environment.

    Wake up please.

  3. Most MSM are not being honest about what this expedition was actually doing which was trying to find evidence to support the AGW fraud.

    “MSM Glosses Over Irony of Global Warming Scientists Trapped in Antarctic Ice

    By P.J. Gladnick | December 28, 2013

    Somewhere far, far to the south where it is summer, a group of global warming scientists are trapped in the Antarctic ice. If you missed the irony of that situation, it is because much of the mainstream media has glossed over that rather inconvenient bit of hilarity. As an example here is an Associated Press story that avoids mentioning the real mission of the scientists aboard the icebound Russian ship:

    The Snow Dragon icebreaker came within 7 miles (11 kilometers) of the Russian ship MV Akademik Shokalskiy, which has been stuck since Christmas Eve, but had to retreat after the ice became too thick, said expedition spokesman Alvin Stone.

    The Akademik Shokalskiy, which has been on a research expedition to Antarctica, got stuck Tuesday after a blizzard’s whipping winds pushed the sea ice around the ship, freezing it in place. The ship wasn’t in danger of sinking, and there are weeks’ worth of supplies for the 74 scientists, tourists and crew on board, but the vessel cannot move.

    So what was the exact mission of these scientists? AP is rather vague about this reporting only:

    The scientific team on board the research ship — which left New Zealand on Nov. 28 — had been recreating Australian explorer Douglas Mawson’s century-old voyage to Antarctica when it became trapped. They plan to continue their expedition after they are freed, expedition leader Chris Turney said.

    Um, there is a bit more to the expedition than merely following in the footsteps of a century-old voyage. But what that mission really is, AP won’t say. If AP is vague about the mission’s purpose, Reuters provides even less information.

    Since the MSM isn’t forthcoming as to the real purpose of those scientists traveling to Antarctica, we turn to Watts Up With That for more insight:

    The expedition is being led by Chris Turney, “climate scientist”, who has “set up a carbon refining company called Carbonscape which has developed technology to fix carbon from the atmosphere and make a host of green bi-products, helping reduce greenhouse gas levels.” The purpose of the expedition is “to discover and communicate the environmental changes taking place in the south.”

    It seems they found out what the “environmental changes taking place in the south.” are.

    Finally, National Geographic bluntly states the mission purpose:

    …The current crop of explorers are hoping to document some of the same data and compare them to Mawson’s numbers, “using the twist of modern technology,” Turney told National Geographic earlier this month.

    As may be expected, global warming might play a role in this, he suggests, particularly with respect to melted ice in the East Antarctic.

    Ah, so now we see why the MSM reluctance to flat out state why the scientists are in the Antarctic. Anything to avoid an inconvenient (but accurate) headline like this:

    GLOBAL WARMING SCIENTISTS TRAPPED IN ANTARCTIC ICE”

    http://newsbusters.org/blogs/pj-glad…#ixzz2ovITxKYv

  4. “If conditions were colder the ice would not have broken off the ice mass.”

    This is an unsupported statement. The only time ice ceases to calve is when the glacial ice ceases to flow. So it doesn’t matter what the temperature of the air or the sea is. If the glacial ice is flowing, it will eventually calve into the sea.

    The calving of glacial ice is much more complicated than presented here. Just for a start, this technical article gives some idea of the factors involved: http://stuff.mit.edu/~heimbach/papers_glaciology/earthscirev_benn_etal_2007_calving.pdf

    “People tend to believe what they want to believe…”

    Ironically, what the author writes tends to be evidence he is in that group.

    • Good points, Thanks, the reason the caving is created/increase/declining is purely down to and similar to a glacial walking/movement. Raining up dale eventually comes down to sea level.

      As the shelves are born they have to start/be born on a higher plane, Antarctica has mountainous terrain, the pole being some 11,000 feet high.

      Has anyone done research on the southern/Antarctic glaciers, these must be included as part of the model.

      Then we have Australia, this continent due to Precession is moving toward the equator, as is Russia towards the North Pole.

      Come on folks do some basic physics

    • I reall don’t think that the tectonic plate movement affecting Australia of 6cm a year is affecting Australia’s climate or will affect it unless the movement continues at this rate for several million years, but please feel free to check out my maths.

    • I accept that the problem of calving is much more complicated than i indicated in my brief essay, but the source you quote does not support your proposition that “it doesn’t matter what the temperature of the ice or sea is..

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