Occam’s Razor Rules

It is snowing in London this morning and there is a bitter wind, more suited to January than March. Our economy is also cold and bitter. We cannot change the weather, although in the long term we can and will change the climate, whether we want to or not and whether we believe it or not. We can change the economy, although the way to change it into something that is more benign and brings more prosperity is not clear. As with the environment, politics interferes with doing what is right for the economy.

Bad times, like bad weather, do not last for ever, but move in cycles, each turn of the wheel bringing us to a slightly different place in a slightly different way.  The complexity of economic activity and the complexity of the science of climate change makes it hard to know whether one measure will help or hinder us in our objectives. It is right to be suspicious of complexity; Occam’s Razor should rule our thinking, shaving away the unnecessary assumptions until we have the simplest hypothesis, but not shaving too deeply to cut the skin or lose sight of the principle problem we are trying to solve.

The interrelationship between economic activity and the climate is the hardest problem to solve. Today it snows and we are poor. Tomorrow it may be warm and we may be rich, or more likely we will be richly overheated. We cannot in our present state of knowledge save the climate without reducing economic activity and the present model for all economic activity in the world of climatic significance is hard selfish greed, pressing for more and more wealth while we live in less and less benign conditions.

One Response

  1. On the 2nd of February also known as Candle Day, it is know in folk lore that if its a fine day, we are only half way through winter, here in North Yorkshire it was a fine day.

    Climate does indeed change with or without mans help. In the “Medieval Warming Period” it was according to all three major Peer Reviewed “Ice Core Data” experiments, that is was a full degree and a half warmer that it is today, without any industrialisation, the science says so.

    Other avenues of mainstream science says there is nothing happening but what is happening before.

    Again two scenario’s throughout history says the non science is wrong, and being wilfully ignored.

    1. The Norse living in Greenland for 450 years with cathedral type dairy farms and milk cows.

    2. On the grounding of the planes on 9-11 the lack of man made cloud due to less cover/con trails let the temp rise by 3/4 degree, therein is a clue to what is happening, and why we are now getting cooler for the last 15 years.

    3. Flood records for Austrailia back as far as the pre industrialisation were as bad if not worse than the last twenty years.

    Finally if the UN’s own predictions are correct, we are going to drop off population wise, declining by a million people a year after 2050, thus helping to cease the real, Visible, pollution mankind is creating without no proper policies for the clean up post industrialisation. The make fertility rate already showing a decline this model already peer review recorded.

    Here is a clue as to what is happening to our weather on the larger scale, there are records for the ancients pointing to this.

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