Carbon emissions will grow with the world

Climate change cannot be curbed by cutting emissions in developed countries without at the same time cutting emissions in the developing world. Indeed, over the next ten years I expect the developed countries to cut emissions on a per capita basis as more countries require the take up of carbon free microgeneration and as appliances and vehicles and transport become more efficient and as waste in energy is reduced.  

The largest single reason for developed countries cutting emission will be the increasing cost of fuel, rather than any real action to reduce climate change. Already the scientists are talking about keeping temperature rises low, rather than stable.  The developing countries have more people than the developed countries and all of those people will aspire to the comfort and luxury enjoyed by people who live in the developed world.

As a result even with some degree of carbon prudence the developing countries, particularly China, India and Brazil will produce emissions over the next ten years that will vastly out weigh the emissions reductions that might happen, even with the strictest of politically possible targets imposed by the United States, Australia and the European Union.  

The developing countries say that emission targets should not apply to them until they have had a chance to chance up with the developed world. That is the essence of the problem to which no one can yet offer a solution.  We should nevertheless still work to reduce the emissions of the developed nations, because every emission saved will give us more time to work out a solution. In the short term it will be the only hope for the undevloped world.