Those running the Berkeley Earth Project were not scientists who felt that global warming was caused by human activity. However, changing your mind is a sign of intelligence, where the change is the result of new discoveries or new ideas. The lead scientist involved in the Berkeley Earth Project, Professor Muller, now thinks that there is a very large probability that global warming is caused by human activity.
The Berkeley Earth Project team have reported a new estimate of the average earth surface land temperature for the period from 1753 to 2011. They used a larger sample of weather stations that has been previously used. Their findings (which are not yet per reviewed) are:-
1. The land temperature rise from the 1950s decade to the 2000s decade is 0.87 ± 0.05 ºC (95% confidence)
2. Both maximum and minimum daily temperatures have increased during the last century. Diurnal variations decreased from 1900 to 1987, and then increased.
3. The period of 1753 to 1850 is marked by sudden drops in land surface temperature that coincide with known volcanism. This volcanism, combined with anthropogenic effects can account for much of the variation in the land surface temperature record.
Of course it is rather crude to try and reconstruct earth temperatures before times when we have accurate and extensive measurements. Ultimately, this is guesswork, albeit highly sophisticated guesswork of a scientific and logical kind. It is not proof.
The interesting thing about this latest research is that how all the studies show that the warming trends become uncontroversial from one study to the next as the time line develops, regardless of whose study you use, and whether you use one year averages or ten year averages. The graphs attached to the Berkeley paper illustrate this clearly. (http://berkeleyearth.org/pdf/results-paper-july-8.pdf).
Not every scientist thinks that there is value in the latest Berkeley paper, notwithstanding some of those involved in producing it having undergone a Pauline type conversion. Professor Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology regards the Berkeley study as over simplistic, which the authors of the Berkeley study seem to accept. The study does use simple proxies as part of its methodology, but presumably because there is little reliable data.
So for some the new study simply creates new arguments. It does not, as far as some scientists are concerned, even add meaningful evidence that a global warming trend exists. Albert Einstein once proclaimed that God does not play dice with the Universe. The famous retort was “Albert, stop telling God what to do”.
Climate change is not a universal concept but a theory that is based on the known laws of physics and the known data. In all probability it exists and in all probability it is caused by humans. In less expansive terms to those used by Einstein, humans are playing dice with the planet, but there is no one to tell them what to do, and no one to say “stop it”.
Filed under: carbon emissions, climate change, global warming Tagged: | anthropgenic climate change, climate, diurnal variations, earth project, Einstein, land surface temperature, playing dice with the universe, Pro Muller, Prof Curry, science, surface temperature record
With conjecture and joviality out of the way for now we are getting there.
Per capita was mentioned, the leading capitalisation doing the most destroying of the world is the worlds policemen, IE the United Nations and their proxy or should one say poxy Empire. The amount of energy being used in fulfilling this dream is astronomical in industrial wastages including the most destructive collective called the Military Industrial Complex, yet its not complex to understand the coming storm and black box mentality being stock pilled as we speak.
Its coming alright there is no doubt about it and make no mistake it will drastically reduce the overall population.
12 days and nights and the rule of all rules will out if and when the oil, electricity and food cease to be spoon fed to an overall lazy majority, reliant upon debt, debt that has become more important than life itself.
If one would awake they might be able to see that there is another world all around us.
Preaching over for now, now take a look around us and upon our feet and where those modes of transport were made and what the ultimate cost to the Gaia is eventually going to cost our offspring in future toil to the rhythm now devouring the whole.
In our hearts and minds we all know what needs to be done, but that means real wor by everyone, here is the realisation that has become hard to grasp.
Time to take the red pill called self pelf and learn to span the goid approaching our jouney, of this I am convinced.
You say
“Doing very little is better than doing nothing”
this makes the VERY BIG ASSUMPTION that the very little is a beneficial type of activity. But government imposed action on climate change is not beneficial it is harmful and the less there is the better off we are.
My point was that the very little action we take in a futile attempt to alleviate climate change is positively harmful mainly because of the economic damage.
Also, the results of Government interference has just made energy more expensive and thus profitable for banks, energy companies and Governments. This is socially destructive. The poor cannot afford to heat their homes because they are subsidiing very profitable companies to build windmills and nuclear power stations and rich landowners to install PV.
E.g windmills need at least an equal amount of gas fired generation as back up, so where is the benefit?
In my view, if we did nothing to alleviate climate change we would make little difference to global warming (man made or otherwise) and we would:
1. not ‘hobble’ our economy;
2. freeze our poor and old;
3. reduce massive profits in banking, oil, power generation, transport etc because the Government has created a lopsided market in energy due to the climate change agenda.
So, in my view doing very little is worse than doing nothing.
I have to agree in many parts with Chris here, the venerable Lord C Monkton has explained as much in laymens terms, that, to try now and clean up our act by trying to destroy the western way of life and transport the labour costs and deliver those wares around the world is creating another huge mess as big as the one now running alongside the other, it cannot be achieved by punishing one faction and rewarding another without further destroying the real loosing ellement, called the true enviornment in which our well being prevails.
A few facts.
At or on the two parts of the year when we need the energy most, IE, The Hottest and The Coldest, the wind simply does not blow, making windmills useless and expensive ornaments.
Winter warmers and locked away carbon is wood the residue from this is akin to the gold of Elderado as in charcoal which in turn atracts and locks away more carbon to make plants grow twice as fast.
You see all the money or invisible credits in all of the banks in this paradigm cannot save anything only destroy that which is trying to survive without our help as she always will.
The only controlling factor that humans control is our “immediate enviornment” and one we destroy in the interim, thus destroying ourselves, only the Gaia will remain.
I would add here what John Alberg-acton once said, and quote.
“The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks”.
Like I have said many times before, its all been done before and its happening again.
Its all really too late and one best prepare your position amongst the stones called collateral composition for the damage that alas will always follow any wrong decissions.
Rob, what exactly does “playing dice with the planet mean”
If there is an issue with use/waste of natural resources and consequent emissions it is much more likely to be solved by:
1. Reducing the world’s population, drastically.
2. Significant emitters like China, USA and India making a real reduction effort.
Neither of the above will happen but I suggest these are the real problems.
If catastrophic climate cange is imminent (in the next 50 years) It will not be solved by:
A. taxes on a handful of countries/sibsidies for windmills. All that will happen is those countries’ economies will be destroyed leaving the real problem makers to continue.
B. By a minority of countries using windmills to generate electricity.
C. By metaphorically beating around the head a group of people who disagree with the climate changers’ agenda and accusing them of destroying the planet.
In my view, trying to convince a small number of people to change behaviour rather than the real cuplrits is just self deception/conscience easing.
I use very little energy, I work from home, I have flown in a plane once in ten years, I have a very economical car which is 15 years old. I live sustainably and as I preach.
Q>So who is really playing dice with the planet?
A> Those King Canute types who try to stop the unstoppable use of energy or stop non existent man made climate change. These KIng Canute types destroy a country’s economy, alienate a large number of hard working people, and risk old people freezing, food shortages, transport stoppages, security in towns, safety on motorways etc, etc.
All this, in a grand gesture of futility and stupidity, to diminish the prospect of the world being 1 degree C warmer in 50 years time.
As many have said ‘you couldn’t make it up’
I agree with the likely solutions but doing very little is better than doing nothing. If we look at emissions/pollutions fairly we should look at per capita figures, not per nation figures. That makes Australia and USA leaders in emissions and pollutions followed by much of the EU.
God does’nt pay carbon taxes and if he did it would’nt make any difference to what ever outcome is going to be eventually realised.
A time will come to pass when everything the planet has to offer will need to be shared out equally, all false taxations to be abolished upon the labours of those within it, so everyone has a fair chance at living instead of dieing to the rhythm of a few hundred.
Start taking the steps to freedom today and try to cease wearing and walking upon childerick and a well being promoted by an unscrupulous articifer and one will learn how it needs to be.
Nature does neither money or taxes only works tirelessly every day for free for herself, then ask yourself this simple question.
Where does mankind go so haywire, get it so wrong, maybe the answers are in these minuites.
Well worth a read the skeptics who follows the music of the moment
http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2012/05/31/sorry-global-warming-alarmists-the-earth-is-cooling/
Mentioned before but still viable.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/16/trenberths-missing-heat-still-missing-new-paper-shows-a-flat-ocean-temperature-trend-0-09c-over-the-past-55-years/
Land readings are shakey at best, but the most accuratereadings were gained by the individual phone in’s from a wider variety of places on the land.
However read the next link where Anthony Watts mentions stevenson screen sitings and the obvious trend for a mal practice model can be realised in advance.
Computer modelling is no match for the many thousands of independants with nothing to gain ot loose, so it has to be a back to basics model with pure facts that cannot be altered by vested and funded ellements.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stevenson_screen#section_4
All the facts are there if you simply look in the right places.
Where there is light there is darl where there is cooling there is heating, that is how the planet has always worked and we have always survived far worse.
PRESS RELEASE – U.S. Temperature trends show a spurious doubling due to NOAA station siting problems and post measurement adjustments.
God doesn’t play dice but Antony Watts would if he could.