The wettest June is likly to be followed by a very wet July. With less than a week into the montyh weather forecasters are predicting that in may places a month’s worth of rain will fall in a single day – today or tomorrow. July averages 60cm of rain. Some places will get that in a month; there will be more flooding and people will have to take great care to protect their property and their lives.
As I look out side my window I see and hear the rain fall, quickly and fully. The roads are full of puddles and rain is falling on puddles, making patterns and bubbles. I hope that the politicians and policy makers will see the puddles, patterns and bubbles in the pattern of our weather.
Filed under: climate change, global warming Tagged: | climate, weather
I take your point about what the Met Office regards as a day but it is still manipulating statistics to fit our superimposed ideas of months, geography etc.
Also, rain does not fall in 31th’s each day. Some days have no rain others a little, others a lot. There may be 27 days without rain and one month’s rain in 4 days. In such a situation taking a monthly average is fraught with bias. The Met Office view of monthly averages only holds true if rain falls evenly throughout the month.
My point is that the headline of “a months rain in one day” is more symptomatic of headline grabbing manipulated statistics than it is evidence of anything unusual in our weather.
The unusual factor this year is the displacement of the Jet Stream. In most years it is west of us. This year it is south east. The result is wet weather here and hot dry weather on the other side of the Atlantic.
In the 70′s there was a fear that a permanent summer relocation of the Jet Stream could result in an Ice Age in the UK.
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PS.
I think 60cm of rain is closer to the annual rainfall than July’s.
I am sure that you are right! I should have written 40mm not 40cm.
Your warning of a month’s rain in one to fall in one day leaves a number of questions.
1. Which month?…… November? July?
2. Whereabouts of the previously measured month’s rain? ….Manchester?London?Timbuktu?
3. What if the rain spans 12 hours each day? Will that be counted as two days?
I know they may seem frivolous questions but the BBC’s headline is misleading as are many statistics.
This year we have had a drought followed by very wet weather.
Taken Dec 11-Dec12 (annually) the average will probably be normal rainfall.
Taken March 11 – March 12 we may have drought.
Taken May 11-May 12 we may have the wettest period since records began.
So do we have drought or flood or is it just choosing timeframes to suit one’s argument?.
1. Average for July 2. Midlands 3. A day is a period of 24 hours starting midnight