Kyoto is not working. The industrial nations of the world were supposed to reduce their carbon emissions; all of them signed up to it except the United States of America. It came into force in 2005 when the requisite number of countries signed up to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 5.2% by 2012, which would have brought them in the main to emissions to 1990 levels. That was a very modest aim, and not one which would have reversed or significantly slowly the rate of global warming, but it was a start and would have bought the planet a few valuable years.
Now, in 2008, we find emissions from industrialised nations have actually risen by 2.3%. The largest rises have taken place in the former soviet bloc nations and Canada. In Canada alone emissions rose by 21.3% from the 1990 base, and I wonder what it is that Canadians are doing to be so careless of the future generations.
In 2006 emissions fell by 0.1%, but this is within the statistical margin of error, and the fall was simply from the 2005 figure, which was higher than the 2004 figure and so forth. The United Kingdom claims some success in being on target, but its figures do not take into account its share from aviation and shipping emissions which have been significantly rising since the turn of the century.
In the United States of America the position seems that in some places emissions are falling but in other places they are rising. The Washington Post measures emissions by simply counting energy from utility bills and traffic records. These indicated a 13.4% increase between 2001 and 2005 compared with an overall national increase of 5.3%. Again the figures are not terribly accurate because they do not count aviation emissions.
No country’s emission figures count emissions created by the purchase of goods manufactured outside the country but used or consumed in the country. If you buy goods that made in China, the emissions are not attributed to you or your nation, but to China, not party to any agreement to reduce its emissions.
What has caused these emission rises? Clearly the growth in prosperity is one important factor. More prosperity means more consumption of goods and services and more consumption requires energy which is the principle source of greenhouse gas emissions. In addition the population has grow, which creates the need for more consumption in itself. Finally and most importantly no major developed industrialised nation has taken any meaningful step to decarbonise its energy. They have all been pussyfooting around.
If you take together the developing nations and the undeveloped nations (they comprise 80% of the people living on our planet) they produce only 41% of global emissions. 59% of the greenhouse gases are produced by the developed nations that comprise only 20% of the world population.
If you look at overall emissions since the industrial revolution the developed countries with their 20% of the population have created 77% of the greenhouse gas emissions.
Of course the developing nations, such as China, are now growing their emissions at the highest rate. Is that fair or does the safety of everyone take precedence over concepts of permitting the developing nations to do as much damage as we in the developed world have already done?
I do not know the answer, but I do know that the temperature is rising and emissions are playing the tune.
Filed under: carbon emissions, climate change, energy, global warming | Tagged: aviation emissions, Canada's emission rise, Chian emissons, emissions, emissions in Washington DC, emissions of the undeveloped developing and developed n, greenhosye gas emissions, kyoto, rate of emissions increase, soike in emissions, UK emissions, US emissions
And my heart keeps weeping and the palnet is playing the blues!
Great post